Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83b1…166f other 271 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%17W / 253L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$23
14 days−$31
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 23% −$19
politics 10% −$9
economics 7% −$11
culture 5% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 270 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses17 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)270 / 271
History coverage142d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $710 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $697 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $284 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $353 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $186 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $492 −$4 -1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $675 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $850 −$2 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $139 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $292 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $270 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $668 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 4h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 9h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 10h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 12h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 14h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 15h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 17h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 18h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 20h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 21h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 22h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 24h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 34h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 39h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 41h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 45h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 47h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $55 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.41 · official $54.41 (match) · 1466 history records