Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83b1…e1f5 world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$5
other 23% −$22
sports 20% −$1
economics 8% $0
politics 5% −$5
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 39 -3.0% -12.2% 36% 0% -9.8%
all 53 -3.4% -12.6% 36% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage349d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $85 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $88 −$5 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $83 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $84 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $84 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $92 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $92 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $94 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $353 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $168 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $101 −$3 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $93 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $181 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $126 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $85 +$3 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $27 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $49 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $86 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $33 −$5 -15%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $548 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $166 −$7 -4%
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 20 $131 $0 +0%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 14 $130 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $87 −$13 -15%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Aug 10 $104 −$7 -7%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish in 4th place at the 2025 F1 British Gran Jul 06 $1 $0 -33%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $3 $0 -12%
Will Primoz Roglic win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 06 $168 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $76 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $84 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $51 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $60 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $58 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $46 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $81 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $89 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $89 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $64 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $82 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $81 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $32 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $29 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $20 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $81 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.22 · official $84.22 (match) · 243 history records