Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83b1…8008 other 264 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$34
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$40
sports 26% −$24
culture 8% −$10
politics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$7
economics 6% −$5
world 4% −$5
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage140d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $112 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 19 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $309 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $373 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $293 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $432 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $136 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $314 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $725 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $434 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $642 −$2 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $567 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $193 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $355 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $301 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $136 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $229 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $306 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $422 −$3 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $682 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 18m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 45m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 7h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 8h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $55 10h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 12h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 15h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 16h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 17h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 19h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 20h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $56 25h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 27h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 30h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 30h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 32h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 33h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 36h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 38h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 39h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 41h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 42h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 44h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 46h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.22 · official $55.22 (match) · 1439 history records