Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83b3…c2d7
crypto · 153 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$41 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses73 / 77
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)150 / 153
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day102.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 3 History 150 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 25¢ 37¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Under 30¢ 43¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 60¢ 26¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$12 -58%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 −$3 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$94
other 11% +$2
sports 10% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 5m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $5 7m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 30¢ $3 8m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $22 11m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $17 46m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -11.1% -19.6% 49% 43% -15.5%
≤30d 150 -11.1% -19.6% 49% 43% -15.5%
≤90d 150 -11.1% -19.6% 49% 43% -15.5%
all 150 -11.1% -19.6% 49% 43% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover102.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 43% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 39% -23.6%
15% -34.3% 35% -31.0%
20% -40.8% 29% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.95 · official $15.95 (match) · 371 history records