Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83b4…f3c1 sports 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,171 (-12%) realized −$1,019 · open −$152
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%118W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$329
7 days+$329
14 days+$329
30 days+$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$981
finance 19% −$174
sports 15% −$174
world 15% −$22
crypto 2% −$25
politics 1% −$9
culture 1% +$39
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +80.4% +63.2% 100% 100% +65.1%
≤30d 3 +20.3% +8.8% 67% 67% +31.7%
≤90d 39 -5.0% -14.1% 49% 41% -30.8%
all 274 -12.1% -20.5% 43% 36% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 36% -22.6%
10% -28.1% 32% -30.0%
15% -35.0% 20% -36.8%
20% -41.4% 13% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized−$1,019
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses118 / 156
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)274 / 280
History coverage154d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $1,082 $946 −$137 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$4 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $3 −$4 (-61%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $1 −$7 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $15 +$12 +78%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $383 +$317 +83%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 10 $104 −$101 -98%
World Championships: Latvia vs. USA May 23 $11 +$39 +374%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 22 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 21 $1,006 −$1,001 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 20 $109 −$67 -62%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 20 $134 −$17 -13%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 20 $22 +$16 +74%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 20 $95 −$57 -60%
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 20 $16 +$2 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $133 −$85 -64%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 20 $41 −$28 -70%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 20 $11 +$1 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $45 −$38 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $78 −$13 -16%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 20 $74 −$12 -16%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 06 $73 +$23 +32%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 06 $396 +$7 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? May 06 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 06 $10 −$8 -79%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 06 $31 +$11 +35%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? May 04 $72 +$16 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 28 $245 +$27 +11%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $22 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 28 $472 −$45 -10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Apr 28 $139 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Apr 28 $98 +$31 +32%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1? Apr 28 $160 +$51 +32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 28 $153 +$73 +48%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 28 $59 +$23 +40%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 28 $54 −$34 -63%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 28 $33 −$18 -55%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 28 $306 −$78 -26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 28 $20 +$7 +35%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? Apr 28 $35 +$17 +50%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 28 $50 +$11 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 12 $13 −$12 -92%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 27 $194 −$76 -39%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 24 $127 +$34 +26%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 23 $39 +$8 +20%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Mar 23 $40 +$13 +34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 23 $91 +$3 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 23 $185 −$66 -36%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 20 $43 +$16 +37%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $14 −$13 -90%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Sebastian Korda vs Casper Ruud Mar 18 $3 $0 -4%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Mar 18 $1 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,101 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 1h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 23¢ $24 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 33d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 33d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 34d
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 34d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 34d
World Championships: Latvia vs. USA BUY Latvia 21¢ $8 34d
World Championships: Latvia vs. USA BUY Latvia 21¢ $2 34d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 34d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 34d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 34d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 34d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 34d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 34d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $383 34d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 35d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 35d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 35d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 35d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 35d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 35d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 35d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 35d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 36d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 36d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 36d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 36d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $12 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.68 · official $997.66 (match) · 1466 history records