Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83bf…8aa4 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$486 (-6%) realized −$435 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day96.3pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$945
other 11% +$326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -10.2% -18.7% 42% 33% -17.9%
≤30d 33 -10.2% -18.7% 42% 33% -17.9%
≤90d 33 -10.2% -18.7% 42% 33% -17.9%
all 33 -10.2% -18.7% 42% 33% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 33% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 33% -25.7%
15% -33.6% 30% -32.9%
20% -40.1% 30% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$156 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,269
Realized−$435
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day96.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 64¢ 66¢ $411 $421 +$10 (+2%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $188 $187 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Curaçao 59¢ 57¢ $189 $185 −$5 (-3%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $174 $172 −$2 (-1%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $164 $166 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Acend 37¢ 24¢ $157 $102 −$54 (-35%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B Jun 25 $269 +$180 +67%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $301 +$560 +186%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $168 −$165 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $164 −$161 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $877 −$553 -63%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $177 −$177 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $46 +$4 +9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $110 +$322 +291%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $159 −$159 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $173 −$173 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $189 +$65 +34%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $93 +$7 +8%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $299 +$184 +61%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $48 −$11 -22%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $112 −$111 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $150 −$147 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $195 −$195 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $249 +$241 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $120 +$10 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $207 +$314 +152%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $216 −$103 -48%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $214 +$222 +103%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $160 −$160 -100%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs ECHO (+1.5) Jun 24 $162 +$93 +57%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $125 +$91 +73%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $304 −$27 -9%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $65 +$104 +161%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $190 −$188 -99%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $135 −$133 -99%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $161 −$159 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 45m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 45m
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 37¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 37¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 37¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 37¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 37¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 64¢ $415 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 37¢ $1 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $166 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $176 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $192 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $190 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 38¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 60¢ $32 6h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 60¢ $33 6h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 60¢ $33 6h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 60¢ $172 6h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 38¢ $168 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 43¢ $164 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 33¢ $7 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 33¢ $22 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 33¢ $25 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 33¢ $15 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 35¢ $66 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 35¢ $11 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 35¢ $76 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 36¢ $80 8h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 59¢ $42 8h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 59¢ $59 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,268.76 · official $1,268.76 (match) · 138 history records