Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83c1…9019
politics · 88 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$535 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$611 · open +$76
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$329
Realized−$611
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)82 / 88
History coverage555d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 6 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 33¢ 60¢ $147 $266 +$119 (+81%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 84¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+44%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-59%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $2,768 +$1,641 +59%
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 Mar 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 02 $1,637 +$109 +7%
Khamenei seen in public by March 14? Feb 28 $134 −$7 -5%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $118 −$108 -91%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $78 +$57 +74%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $132 +$64 +48%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 18 $55 −$43 -78%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $319 +$4 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo get between 30% and 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayo Dec 04 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo get more than 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral el Dec 04 $1,348 +$160 +12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Obama endorse Mamdani? Nov 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump resign today? Nov 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Oct 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 30 $3 $0 -3%
Will Innsbruck host Eurovision 2026? Aug 27 $389 −$179 -46%
Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026? Aug 27 $498 +$220 +44%
Will Georgia Tech make the College Football Playoff? Aug 24 $12 $0 +4%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July? Aug 06 $504 +$26 +5%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July? Aug 01 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? Jul 29 $1,185 +$16 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on July 8? Jul 07 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Jul 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 05 $426 −$125 -30%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jul 02 $2,266 −$501 -22%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $6 −$5 -81%
Will Graz host Eurovision 2026? Jun 27 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jun 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jun 25 $252 −$96 -38%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23? Jun 25 $595 +$71 +12%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June  27? Jun 25 $276 +$72 +26%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 1? Jun 25 $0 $0 -78%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 25 $684 +$163 +24%
First round leader wins NYC Democratic primary? Jun 25 $203 +$15 +7%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June  22? Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 22 $492 +$37 +8%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 22 $1,598 −$315 -20%
Will Trump say Netanyahu during his Iran address on June 21? Jun 22 $129 +$51 +40%
Will Trump say Fordow during his Iran address on June 21? Jun 22 $500 +$34 +7%
Will Trump say B-2 during his Iran address on June 21? Jun 22 $260 −$260 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $1,700 −$289 -17%
Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be between 10% and 1 Jun 21 $150 $0 +0%
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be more tha Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 17 $780 +$220 +28%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $198 −$98 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% +$551
world 29% −$1,062
other 22% −$70
sports 4% +$130
crypto 1% −$39
weather 0% +$10
culture 0% −$50
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 17m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 46m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $18 1h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $18 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 31h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 4d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 66¢ $63 66d
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 SELL Yes 13¢ $44 85d
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 SELL Yes 13¢ $1 85d
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 SELL Yes 13¢ $3 85d
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 SELL Yes 14¢ $9 85d
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 BUY Yes 21¢ $3 85d
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 BUY Yes 21¢ $3 85d
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 BUY Yes 17¢ $22 85d
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 BUY Yes 8¢ $22 85d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 100d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 66¢ $109 102d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 102d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 102d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 66¢ $44 102d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,430 102d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 102d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 102d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 66¢ $106 102d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 SELL Yes 91¢ $1,745 102d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 64¢ $130 103d
Khamenei seen in public by March 14? SELL No 90¢ $127 103d
Khamenei seen in public by March 14? BUY No 96¢ $134 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +36.7% +23.7% 100% 100% +43.4%
all 82 -34.4% -40.6% 32% 17% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 17% -11.9%
10% -46.3% 13% -20.3%
15% -51.5% 7% -28.0%
20% -56.3% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.56 · official $328.56 (match) · 443 history records