Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83c1…b730 crypto 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$107 (-4%) realized −$105 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%109W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$168
sports 1% −$14
politics 1% −$7
other 1% +$1
world 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -3.0% -12.2% 61% 33% -11.0%
≤30d 106 -9.8% -18.3% 54% 33% -15.1%
≤90d 125 -7.0% -15.9% 55% 34% -15.0%
all 186 -6.4% -15.3% 59% 38% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 38% -15.2%
10% -23.4% 25% -23.3%
15% -30.8% 17% -30.7%
20% -37.6% 11% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses109 / 77
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)186 / 187
History coverage516d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 90¢ 90¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 27¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$21 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$14 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.08 · official $9.21 (match) · 1354 history records