Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83c2…e52d
other · 13 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$20 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$182
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 7 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $63 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$28 +414%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$6 -29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% −$9
other 42% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +38.5% +25.3% 33% 33% +1.2%
≤30d 6 +38.5% +25.3% 33% 33% +1.2%
≤90d 6 +38.5% +25.3% 33% 33% +1.2%
all 6 +38.5% +25.3% 33% 33% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 33% +1.2%
10% +13.3% 33% -8.4%
15% +2.4% 33% -17.3%
20% -7.7% 33% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.07 · official $182.07 (match) · 22 history records