Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
83 0x83c5…e193 politics 485 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,712 (+28%) realized +$14,625 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate59%216W / 150L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$8,311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$364
politics 35% +$1,770
world 13% +$531
sports 11% +$151
crypto 2% +$36
tech 2% −$444
culture 2% −$95
finance 0% +$12
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -4.8% -13.9% 66% 29% -13.6%
≤30d 173 +5.3% -4.8% 55% 26% -16.3%
≤90d 366 +20.1% +8.6% 59% 33% -6.8%
all 366 +20.1% +8.6% 59% 33% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.6% 33% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -1.8% 24% -15.7%
15% -11.2% 19% -23.8%
20% -19.9% 16% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$43 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$8,311
Realized+$14,625
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses216 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions120
Markets (closed)366 / 485
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$110
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 120 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 50¢ $354 $454 +$101 (+28%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 58¢ 68¢ $308 $360 +$52 (+17%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 81¢ 73¢ $331 $299 −$32 (-10%)
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $301 $293 −$8 (-3%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 91¢ 94¢ $257 $263 +$6 (+2%)
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? No 77¢ 78¢ $231 $234 +$3 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $188 $198 +$10 (+5%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 96¢ 97¢ $192 $195 +$2 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $173 $178 +$5 (+3%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k? Yes 32¢ 71¢ $79 $178 +$98 (+124%)
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 89¢ 80¢ $194 $175 −$19 (-10%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? No 80¢ 89¢ $155 $173 +$17 (+11%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $151 $165 +$14 (+9%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 31¢ 22¢ $231 $163 −$69 (-30%)
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? No 61¢ 80¢ $121 $159 +$39 (+32%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $153 $157 +$5 (+3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 64¢ 76¢ $127 $152 +$25 (+19%)
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $146 $148 +$2 (+1%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 54¢ 46¢ $172 $147 −$25 (-14%)
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? No 90¢ 74¢ $176 $145 −$30 (-17%)
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 59¢ 78¢ $107 $140 +$33 (+31%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $126 $131 +$5 (+4%)
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 69¢ 75¢ $110 $121 +$10 (+9%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? No 65¢ 76¢ $99 $117 +$17 (+18%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? No 84¢ 84¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 17 $71 −$46 -65%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +30%
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $27 +$3 +12%
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? Jun 17 $59 +$40 +68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $370 +$200 +54%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 16 $43 +$5 +10%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $57 +$5 +10%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 16 $57 +$3 +6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 16 $42 −$18 -42%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $26 +$5 +18%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $1,020 +$88 +9%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $78 +$7 +9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $421 −$7 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 15 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $45 +$4 +10%
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E4 S9 Jun 15 $37 +$3 +7%
Will anyone say "Bird" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $37 +$2 +6%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $44 +$6 +14%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $36 +$4 +10%
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Will anyone say "President" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $26 +$2 +7%
Will anyone say "Robot" or "Bot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $37 +$3 +8%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $37 +$3 +7%
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $68 +$2 +3%
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Olympiacos Piraeus win Greek Basketball League? Jun 14 $3 +$12 +335%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 14 $185 +$43 +23%
Will Panathinaikos Athens win Greek Basketball League? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Douglas Santos be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Will PARIVISION reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $44 −$27 -61%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $50 +$30 +61%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$21 +54%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $42 +$8 +19%
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $219 +$6 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $31 +$9 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 92¢ $34 17m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 40m
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo BUY No 39¢ $16 41m
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo BUY No 41¢ $8 41m
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 5¢ $0 50m
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 5¢ $1 50m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 58m
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 92¢ $31 1h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,310.65 · official $8,309.99 (match) · 3500 history records