Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83c6…243b crypto 375 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (161 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$561 (-4%) realized −$531 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate87%319W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day160.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$24
sports 12% −$605
other 9% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (161 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 368 -1.3% -10.7% 87% 2% -13.5%
≤30d 368 -1.3% -10.7% 87% 2% -13.5%
≤90d 368 -1.3% -10.7% 87% 2% -13.5%
all 368 -1.3% -10.7% 87% 2% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover160.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 2% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 1% -21.8%
15% -27.1% 1% -29.4%
20% -34.2% 1% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized−$531
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses319 / 49
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions7
Markets (closed)368 / 375
History coverage3d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day160.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LCK (South Korea) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage Yes 87¢ 80¢ $235 $217 −$19 (-8%)
Will the announcers say "Dominant" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? No 75¢ 78¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Speed say "Hat trick" on stream? Yes 77¢ 49¢ $61 $39 −$22 (-36%)
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 0¢ 84¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 99¢ 96¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will the announcers say "Oh my God" or "Oh my Goodness" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 41¢ 35¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $33 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $43 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $6 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $23 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $29 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $80 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $23 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $38 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $80 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $6 44m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 50m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.15 · official $345.30 · 804 history records