Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:11:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
83 0x83c7…fecc weather 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$33
weather 32% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.8% -13.0% 67% 46% -2.1%
≤30d 24 -3.8% -13.0% 67% 46% -2.1%
≤90d 40 -9.1% -17.7% 60% 42% -5.0%
all 40 -9.1% -17.7% 60% 42% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 42% -5.0%
10% -25.6% 22% -14.1%
15% -32.8% 15% -22.4%
20% -39.4% 5% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage71d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 21? No 71¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? No 70¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? No 68¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$2 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 16 $3 −$2 -58%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on Apri Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 17 Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 17 Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 17 Apr 18 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Apr Apr 16 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ap Apr 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 15? Apr 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on April 15? Apr 15 $4 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 14 Apr 15 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on April 15? Apr 14 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 13 Apr 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 13 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 12 Apr 13 $3 +$2 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 12? Apr 13 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 11? Apr 12 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? BUY No 68¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY No 70¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 21? SELL No 34¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY No 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 44¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 45¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 45¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 46¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 43¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 44¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 44¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 71¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 45¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 15¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 24¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $4 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.00 · official $12.00 (match) · 100 history records