Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83c7…8567 other 37 markets active 23h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-15%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$5
sports 6% −$5
weather 3% −$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -37.3% -43.3% 29% 29% -29.5%
≤30d 32 +28.3% +16.1% 38% 38% -25.6%
≤90d 33 +24.4% +12.6% 36% 36% -26.7%
all 33 +24.4% +12.6% 36% 36% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 36% -26.7%
10% +1.8% 30% -33.8%
15% -8.0% 30% -40.2%
20% -17.1% 24% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +92% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage42d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +55%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8 +$4 +51%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$5 -30%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +143%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +262%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $4 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $9 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.94 · official $3.94 (match) · 67 history records