Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83d1…0ffa sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$196 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$262
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$172
other 28% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -24.2% -31.4% 36% 36% -18.2%
≤30d 11 -24.2% -31.4% 36% 36% -18.2%
≤90d 11 -24.2% -31.4% 36% 36% -18.2%
all 18 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 50% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 50% -1.7%
10% -18.6% 50% -11.1%
15% -26.5% 50% -19.7%
20% -33.7% 50% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$79 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$196
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage166d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Under 50¢ 64¢ $95 $123 +$27 (+29%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $185 +$124 +67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $98 +$87 +89%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $50 −$49 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $107 −$105 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $74 +$78 +105%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $74 +$128 +172%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $35 −$34 -98%
Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5 Jan 15 $100 +$100 +100%
Nets vs. Pelicans Jan 15 $103 +$99 +96%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Jan 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5 Jan 14 $66 +$63 +96%
Hawks vs. Lakers Jan 14 $110 +$98 +89%
Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5 Jan 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13? Jan 14 $100 +$75 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $97 16m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 52m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $110 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $185 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $98 18h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 44¢ $102 18h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $50 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $102 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $72 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 44¢ $107 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 41¢ $51 37h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $74 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $35 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $74 2d
Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 164d
Nets vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 51¢ $103 164d
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $105 164d
Hawks vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 53¢ $110 165d
Hawks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5 BUY Over 51¢ $66 165d
Bulls vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5 BUY Under 50¢ $100 165d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.15 · official $123.15 (match) · 30 history records