Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83d5…c33c crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$197 (-17%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$87
other 23% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -26.9% -33.9% 43% 43% -37.0%
≤30d 44 -26.9% -33.9% 43% 43% -37.0%
≤90d 44 -26.9% -33.9% 43% 43% -37.0%
all 44 -26.9% -33.9% 43% 43% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.9% 43% -37.0%
10% ← realistic here -40.2% 27% -43.0%
15% -46.0% 20% -48.5%
20% -51.3% 16% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$34 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$8 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$29 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$23 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $84 −$17 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $58 +$118 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 26 $51 −$35 -68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $30 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $60 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $52 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records