Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83d9…aad5 crypto 1623 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$464 (+1%) realized +$464 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%1525W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$24
14 days−$6
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 1% -8.9%
≤30d 782 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 1313 +0.1% -9.5% 95% 2% -9.5%
all 1623 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$464
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1525 / 98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1623 / 1623
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1623 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$12 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $67 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $55 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $24 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $60 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $24 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $24 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $28 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $27 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $27 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $27 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $27 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $42 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $24 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $27 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.12 · official $25.12 (match) · 3500 history records