Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83d9…10d9 sports 399 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (1540 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$74 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1540.0pace
Fees−$243est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$32,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$627
other 20% −$748
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -26.2% -33.2% 43% 43% -40.6%
≤30d 7 -26.2% -33.2% 43% 43% -40.6%
≤90d 7 -26.2% -33.2% 43% 43% -40.6%
all 7 -26.2% -33.2% 43% 43% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1540.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 43% -40.6%
10% ← realistic here -39.6% 29% -46.3%
15% -45.5% 14% -51.5%
20% -50.8% 0% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$32,150
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions391
Markets (closed)7 / 399
History coverage1d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1540.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 391 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) South Africa 90¢ 90¢ $7,067 $7,028 −$39 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 68¢ $5,196 $6,356 +$1,160 (+22%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $3,980 $4,014 +$34 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 76¢ $2,241 $3,298 +$1,057 (+47%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $1,711 $1,700 −$11 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $1,588 $1,576 −$12 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 36¢ 36¢ $1,471 $1,492 +$20 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $1,029 $1,040 +$11 (+1%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 72¢ 64¢ $909 $814 −$95 (-10%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $455 $454 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Switzerland 95¢ 96¢ $445 $447 +$2 (+0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 47¢ 24¢ $801 $401 −$401 (-50%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 86¢ 86¢ $390 $392 +$2 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 51¢ $236 $223 −$13 (-6%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 91¢ 100¢ $170 $187 +$17 (+10%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 38¢ $230 $149 −$82 (-35%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 90¢ $125 $146 +$22 (+18%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 98¢ $126 $137 +$11 (+9%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 58¢ 58¢ $119 $120 +$1 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? No 56¢ 100¢ $54 $96 +$42 (+78%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 71¢ 72¢ $92 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 86¢ $78 $79 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) South Africa 96¢ 98¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $68 $49 −$19 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $36 −$27 -74%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $20 +$10 +48%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $24 +$7 +29%
Parma (Doubles): Paul/Seggerman vs Galan/Tobon Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $33 −$32 -99%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $0 $0 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 0m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 0m
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 99¢ $1 0m
Spread: IR Iran (-4.5) BUY Egypt 99¢ $1 0m
Spread: IR Iran (-5.5) BUY Egypt 99¢ $1 0m
Spread: IR Iran (-3.5) BUY Egypt 99¢ $1 0m
Spread: Egypt (-5.5) BUY IR Iran 99¢ $1 0m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 0m
Spread: Cabo Verde (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 99¢ $1 0m
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 99¢ $2 0m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 0m
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 15¢ $1 0m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-5.5) BUY Cabo Verde 99¢ $1 0m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 0m
Spread: Cabo Verde (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 99¢ $1 0m
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 99¢ $1 0m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 0m
Spread: Norway (-4.5) BUY France 99¢ $1 1m
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY France 99¢ $1 1m
Spread: Norway (-5.5) BUY France 99¢ $1 1m
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 1m
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 1m
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY Norway 99¢ $1 1m
Spread: DR Congo (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 99¢ $1 3m
Spread: Tunisia (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 99¢ $1 3m
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 3m
Spread: Tunisia (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 99¢ $1 3m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $5 4m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $3 4m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $1 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,150.03 · official $32,130.51 (match) · 1545 history records