Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

83 0x83db…a3a4 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$61 · open +$46

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$76per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-1.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+71.9%	+55.5%	100%	100%	+46.8%
≤30d	4	+8.7%	-1.6%	50%	50%	+0.7%
≤90d	4	+8.7%	-1.6%	50%	50%	+0.7%
all	4	+8.7%	-1.6%	50%	50%	+0.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.6%	50%	+0.7%
10%	-11.0%	50%	-9.0%
15%	-19.6%	50%	-17.7%
20%	-27.5%	25%	-25.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$30 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$186

Realized−$61

Unrealized+$46

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage18d

Avg bet$76

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	82¢	$100	$142	+$42 (+42%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Yes	92¢	100¢	$40	$43	+$3 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$42	+42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$52	+$54	+102%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	Jun 07	$51	−$50	-98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$112	−$10	-9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	92¢	$40	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	49¢	$52	29h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	BUY Flavio Cobolli	41¢	$51	10d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	47¢	$102	18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.70 · official $185.70 (match) · 11 history records