Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83dd…06d2 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$208 (+15%) realized +$213 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$301
other 22% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% +11.2%
≤30d 13 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% +11.2%
≤90d 13 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% +11.2%
all 13 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 38% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 38% +11.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 38% +0.6%
15% -30.4% 31% -9.2%
20% -37.2% 23% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$60 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized+$213
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 55¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 50¢ 50¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $52 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 −$2 -3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$472 +307%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $107 −$105 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $125 −$123 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$140 +137%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $77 +$48 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $67 −$65 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 +$12 +23%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$9 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $74 48m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $99 50m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $5 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $5 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $3 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $5 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $5 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $5 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 82¢ $41 4h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $111 9h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $61 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $71 9h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $71 9h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $42 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $63 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $125 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $44 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $74 33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $23 33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $61 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $121 34h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 38h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 40h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 79¢ $27 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.43 · official $457.45 (match) · 48 history records