Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
83 0x83e0…8f21 sports 92 markets active 8d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,777 (+18%) realized +$7,814 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%38W / 47L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$878est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$6,919
30 days+$7,262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$6,504
other 32% +$480
crypto 4% +$182
world 0% +$10
politics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 77 +23.7% +11.9% 44% 35% +2.4%
≤90d 85 +18.8% +7.5% 45% 35% +2.1%
all 85 +18.8% +7.5% 45% 35% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 35% +2.1%
10% -2.8% 25% -7.6%
15% -12.2% 16% -16.6%
20% -20.8% 15% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$576) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$44 · ×5.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$7,814
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses38 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$878
Open positions7
Markets (closed)85 / 92
History coverage63d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $80 $66 −$14 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+73%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 61¢ 42¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,544 −$84 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $253 +$33 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $459 −$85 -19%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $734 +$1,040 +142%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $114 +$5 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $416 +$1,806 +434%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $977 +$597 +61%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,509 +$625 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,655 −$215 -8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$2 -11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $957 +$65 +7%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $403 +$10 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,047 −$75 -7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,748 +$780 +28%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$97 +194%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $355 −$145 -41%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $339 −$44 -13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 −$3 -9%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2,378 +$462 +19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $164 +$215 +131%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $126 −$63 -50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,591 −$44 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $95 −$5 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $611 −$8 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,707 +$403 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $453 +$599 +132%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $83 −$14 -17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$7 -4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $819 −$35 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $749 −$48 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $543 −$56 -10%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $320 −$30 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $401 +$3 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $586 +$173 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,002 +$88 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,303 +$229 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $417 +$169 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $143 +$137 +96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $369 −$139 -38%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $385 −$38 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $528 +$674 +128%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,796 −$83 -5%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,188 −$40 -3%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $418 −$23 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1,238 +$191 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $213 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $1 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $227 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $521 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $81 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $473 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $725 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $764 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $71 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $14 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $17 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $34 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 53¢ $215 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $16 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $169 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 4¢ $26 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $5 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $41 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $0 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 25¢ $0 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 25¢ $169 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $53 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $0 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $1 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $282 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $125 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $132 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.55 · official $122.55 (match) · 973 history records