Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
83 0x83e0…bbe7 other 58 markets active 6h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$15,459 (+37%) realized +$14,922 · open +$537
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate67%26W / 13L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$722per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$5,600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,968
7 days+$13,529
14 days+$14,071
30 days+$14,078
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$14,482
politics 36% +$89
other 9% +$2
world 5% +$42
sports 0% +$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +18.1% +6.8% 62% 46% +35.2%
≤30d 36 +14.0% +3.2% 67% 50% +26.0%
≤90d 39 +13.0% +2.3% 67% 46% +25.1%
all 39 +13.0% +2.3% 67% 46% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 46% +25.1%
10% -7.5% 36% +13.1%
15% -16.5% 23% +2.2%
20% -24.7% 21% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$528) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$769 vs −$537 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$5,600
Realized+$14,922
Unrealized+$537
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses26 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)39 / 58
History coverage82d
Avg bet$722
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3,265 $3,235 −$30 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $1,456 $1,529 +$73 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 16¢ 77¢ $127 $613 +$485 (+381%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 97¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+96%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 69¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 51¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $413 −$413 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $13,000 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $3,671 +$6,364 +173%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$8 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$19 +358%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $6,195 +$5,836 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,418 +$4,079 +288%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 09 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $377 −$377 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,513 −$1,513 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? Jun 08 $447 −$447 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $3,871 +$3,609 +93%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 6? Jun 06 $3,079 −$3,079 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $35 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 05 $5 +$1 +15%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Jun 04 $664 +$17 +3%
World Championships: Canada vs. USA Jun 01 $6 +$1 +24%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia Jun 01 $6 +$5 +86%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia Jun 01 $10 +$3 +31%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $731 +$8 +1%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 05 $220 +$5 +2%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 05 $247 +$3 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $528 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,991 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,249 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $398 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 32h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $19 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 35¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 35¢ $3,658 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $5 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 92¢ $461 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $940 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 51¢ $5 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 61¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 31¢ $5 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 69¢ $6 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $8 5d
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $56 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 5d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 46¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,600.10 · official $5,600.10 (match) · 173 history records