Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83e2…d9da sports 55 markets active 5d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47 (-7%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$47
other 20% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -37.3%
≤30d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -37.3%
≤90d 30 -84.2% -85.7% 10% 10% -84.4%
all 55 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 47% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 47% -16.3%
10% -23.2% 44% -24.3%
15% -30.6% 40% -31.6%
20% -37.4% 31% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +79% → late -89% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage134d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 13 $12 +$5 +44%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 13 $9 +$7 +76%
Pacers vs. Raptors Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Rockets vs. Knicks Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Clippers Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Norfolk State Spartans vs. Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. UCF Knights Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Heat Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Warriors vs. Wizards Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Loyola Maryland Greyhounds Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Apr 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 27 $11 +$6 +54%
Magic vs. Heat Mar 15 $14 +$23 +163%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Mar 12 $9 +$20 +224%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 06 $10 +$3 +28%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Mar 02 $13 +$19 +144%
Oilers vs. Sharks Mar 01 $8 +$12 +144%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $6 +$3 +43%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Feb 27 $7 +$3 +43%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $10 +$6 +59%
Kings vs. Rockets Feb 26 $12 +$1 +12%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $10 +$7 +67%
76ers vs. Pacers Feb 25 $7 +$2 +25%
Mavericks vs. Nets Feb 25 $12 +$10 +82%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $9 +$9 +96%
Hawks vs. 76ers Feb 20 $7 +$7 +104%
Cleveland State Vikings vs. Youngstown State Penguins Feb 19 $8 +$2 +19%
Coppin State Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs Feb 17 $5 +$11 +212%
Iona Gaels vs. Niagara Purple Eagles Feb 16 $5 +$9 +186%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA? Feb 15 $40 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 09 $87 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $13 4d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $12 30d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 56¢ $9 49d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 71¢ $14 81d
Pelicans vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 65¢ $11 84d
Spurs vs. Heat BUY Heat 38¢ $11 86d
Suns vs. Timberwolves BUY Suns 41¢ $10 92d
Warriors vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 27¢ $12 93d
Pacers vs. Bucks BUY Pacers 26¢ $11 94d
Magic vs. Heat BUY Magic 38¢ $14 95d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 35¢ $14 97d
Magic vs. Timberwolves BUY Magic 31¢ $9 103d
Knicks vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 48¢ $6 104d
Raptors vs. Timberwolves BUY Raptors 36¢ $7 104d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Magic 78¢ $10 105d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $11 105d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $11 107d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 41¢ $13 109d
Oilers vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 41¢ $8 110d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 70¢ $6 111d
Pelicans vs. Jazz BUY Pelicans 70¢ $7 111d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 63¢ $10 112d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY Heat 45¢ $7 112d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 60¢ $10 112d
Kings vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 89¢ $12 113d
Mavericks vs. Nets BUY Mavericks 55¢ $12 114d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY 76ers 80¢ $7 114d
Spurs vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 52¢ $10 115d
Raptors vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 42¢ $12 116d
Rockets vs. Knicks BUY Rockets 41¢ $8 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records