Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83e3…5652 crypto 676 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (292 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,621 (-89%) realized −$7,621 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%43W / 506L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day292.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8,463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (292 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 477 -60.5% -64.3% 8% 8% -14.4%
≤30d 549 -50.6% -55.3% 8% 8% -13.1%
≤90d 549 -50.6% -55.3% 8% 8% -13.1%
all 549 -50.6% -55.3% 8% 8% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover292.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.3% 8% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -59.6% 8% -21.4%
15% -63.5% 8% -29.0%
20% -67.1% 8% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$20 · ×11.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,621
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses43 / 506
Open positions0
Markets (closed)549 / 676
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day292.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 549 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $841 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $385 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records