Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
83 0x83e8…e2d7 crypto 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$37 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%343W / 8L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$11
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$55
politics 6% −$20
finance 2% +$1
other 1% +$2
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 1% -9.9%
≤30d 351 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 1% -8.8%
≤90d 351 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 1% -8.8%
all 351 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 1% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 1% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses343 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)351 / 357
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election? No 98¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 22h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 23h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.86 · official $119.86 (match) · 711 history records