Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83e9…e865
crypto · 148 markets active 3h ago
3.5score
+$67 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$67 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses62 / 86
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 84¢ 0¢ $249 $0 −$249 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $328 +$62 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $112 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $83 +$131 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $250 −$249 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$126 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $62 +$68 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $24 −$9 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $32 −$23 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $32 −$13 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $27 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 09 $259 +$28 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$12 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 09 $30 +$36 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 09 $195 +$52 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 09 $209 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 09 $286 +$27 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 09 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 09 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 09 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 09 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 09 $40 −$6 -16%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $10 −$9 -93%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $30 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 08 $110 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 08 $62 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 08 $19 −$17 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 08 $10 +$15 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 08 $20 +$22 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 08 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 08 $20 +$15 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 08 $30 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 08 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 08 $40 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 08 $20 +$43 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 08 $20 −$4 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% +$93
sports 14% −$150
other 2% +$135
culture 0% −$10
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $107 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $126 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -20.3% -27.9% 41% 35% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -20.3% -27.9% 41% 35% -9.7%
≤90d 98 -35.0% -41.2% 31% 29% -7.8%
all 148 -19.8% -27.4% 42% 33% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 33% -7.9%
10% -34.3% 26% -16.7%
15% -40.7% 20% -24.7%
20% -46.5% 18% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 491 history records