Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83ea…c2ef crypto 1509 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,958 (-4%) realized −$2,958 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%733W / 776L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$377
7 days+$352
14 days+$219
30 days−$2,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,949
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +9.0% -1.4% 62% 62% -0.1%
≤30d 496 -12.3% -20.7% 45% 45% -20.0%
≤90d 1509 -4.0% -13.1% 49% 48% -12.1%
all 1509 -4.0% -13.1% 49% 48% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 48% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 47% -20.5%
15% -29.0% 47% -28.2%
20% -36.0% 45% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$42 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,958
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses733 / 776
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1509 / 1509
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1509 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$37 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$34 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$38 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$24 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$37 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $463 +$326 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$34 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$34 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$39 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$51 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$34 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$35 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $92 +$55 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$31 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$31 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$37 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$36 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$37 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$38 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $462 −$462 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $462 +$258 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$32 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $46 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $46 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $46 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $46 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $46 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $46 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $46 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $47 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $47 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $46 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records