Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x83ed…03eb other 985 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,887 (+2%) realized +$4,887 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%911W / 74L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$505est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,192
7 days+$1,769
14 days+$2,280
30 days+$2,973
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$2,520
sports 45% +$2,088
politics 1% +$44
world 0% +$9
crypto 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 +1.4% -8.2% 98% 5% -7.4%
≤30d 349 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 5% -7.9%
≤90d 823 +0.2% -9.3% 93% 8% -7.5%
all 985 +1.0% -8.6% 92% 8% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 8% -7.9%
10% -17.3% 6% -16.7%
15% -25.3% 5% -24.8%
20% -32.6% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$115 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,887
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses911 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$505
Open positions0
Markets (closed)985 / 985
History coverage155d ⚠
Avg bet$260
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 985 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Team to Take First Corner Jun 25 $75 +$1 +1%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Jun 25 $105 $0 +0%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $65 +$1 +2%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $693 +$7 +1%
John Yeboah: 1+ goals Jun 25 $65 $0 +0%
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals Jun 25 $75 $0 +0%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 25 $868 −$75 -9%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 25 $123 $0 +0%
John Yeboah: 2+ goals Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $114 +$1 +1%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals Jun 25 $191 $0 +0%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $216 +$284 +132%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $358 +$2 +1%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1,689 +$18 +1%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Jun 25 $794 +$8 +1%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $723 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $711 −$10 -2%
Rayan: 1+ goals Jun 25 $36 +$1 +2%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals Jun 25 $97 +$3 +3%
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals Jun 25 $302 +$4 +2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $246 +$2 +1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $82 +$1 +1%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals Jun 25 $15 +$1 +5%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $3,473 +$44 +1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $4 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $1,992 +$8 +0%
Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals Jun 25 $9 +$1 +16%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1,835 +$21 +1%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $472 +$27 +6%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $3,572 +$322 +9%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $163 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $3,924 +$293 +8%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals Jun 24 $346 +$1 +0%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $671 +$185 +28%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $14 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $405 +$4 +1%
Promise David: 1+ goals Jun 24 $21 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $990 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $1,980 +$18 +1%
João Neves: 2+ goals Jun 23 $64 $0 +0%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 23 $67 $0 +0%
Vitinha: 2+ goals Jun 23 $78 $0 +0%
Vitinha: 1+ goals Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 23 $325 +$3 +1%
João Neves: 1+ goals Jun 23 $79 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $93 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $495 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $65 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $169 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $883 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $198 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $20 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $123 2h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $8 2h
John Yeboah: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 2h
John Yeboah: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $65 2h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $15 2h
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $3 2h
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $102 2h
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $29 2h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $16 2h
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $75 2h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $15 2h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $693 2h
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $191 2h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $123 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $65 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Team to Take First Corner BUY Ecuador 99¢ $75 3h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $12 4h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $330 4h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $412 4h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $8 4h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY No 25¢ $83 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $138 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records