Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83ef…3732 other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$12
world 40% −$37
politics 15% −$10
sports 1% +$23
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.8% -11.1% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 28 -1.5% -10.8% 21% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 37 -2.5% -11.8% 19% 0% -10.3%
all 79 -0.0% -9.5% 28% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -10.0%
10% -18.2% 4% -18.6%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage303d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $61 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $68 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $114 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $252 −$5 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $78 −$2 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $71 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $110 −$6 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $308 −$1 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $22 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $35 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $311 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $233 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $77 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $33 −$16 -48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $159 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $302 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $553 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $552 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $616 −$8 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $5 $0 +9%
Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan Dec 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $53 −$14 -26%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $43 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $27 +$18 +70%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $66 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $40 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $53 38h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 42h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 44h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $67 46h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $68 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $33 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $26 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $59 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $61 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $62 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $8 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $17 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $37 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $62 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $62 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $56 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $50 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $68 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $68 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.28 · official $67.24 (match) · 543 history records