Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83f4…0cc5 crypto 418 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-5%) realized −$36 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%223W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$18
14 days−$22
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$39
other 12% +$1
politics 10% −$1
weather 6% −$21
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -24.6% -31.8% 35% 35% -38.2%
≤30d 112 -9.6% -18.2% 40% 38% -24.8%
≤90d 362 -4.9% -14.0% 54% 45% -17.2%
all 416 -6.2% -15.1% 54% 42% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 42% -16.4%
10% -23.2% 27% -24.4%
15% -30.7% 14% -31.7%
20% -37.5% 9% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses223 / 193
Open positions2
Markets (closed)416 / 418
History coverage154d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.01 (match) · 967 history records