Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83f6…25b6
other · 589 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$481 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$481 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$481
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses270 / 317
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)587 / 589
History coverage176d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 2 History 587 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$21
14 days−$499
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-07? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Trail Blazers 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-18? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Warriors Knicks 41¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-14? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-06? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +113%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $20 +$5 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $25 +$24 +94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 03 $91 −$90 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 27 $41 +$47 +115%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 26 $41 +$43 +105%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$40 +786%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $26 +$20 +77%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 24 $41 +$25 +62%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 23 $51 +$55 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 22 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 22 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 22 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 22 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 22 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 22 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $36 −$20 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 22 $16 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 22 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 22 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 22 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 22 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 22 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 22 $16 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% −$122
sports 24% −$334
crypto 18% +$2
world 1% −$8
weather 0% −$10
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 77¢ $20 20h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 66¢ $11 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 22h
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) BUY Knicks 1¢ $1 45h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 SELL Over 61¢ $25 45h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $5 46h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 46h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 95¢ $49 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 47¢ $91 9d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 40¢ $204 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 14d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 15d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $41 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 SELL Over 98¢ $88 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 17d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 19d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -19.0% -26.7% 44% 44% +12.3%
≤30d 103 -1.4% -10.8% 54% 45% -18.0%
≤90d 300 -4.3% -13.4% 48% 43% -15.5%
all 587 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 43% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 43% -14.0%
10% -17.7% 41% -22.2%
15% -25.7% 39% -29.7%
20% -32.9% 34% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.42 · official $34.42 (match) · 1041 history records