Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:09:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
83 0x83f6…62f8 other 313 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,006 (-2%) realized −$1,005 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%157W / 151L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$644
14 days−$113
30 days−$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$388
sports 25% −$1,406
crypto 17% −$463
world 5% +$627
finance 3% −$231
tech 3% +$286
politics 3% −$317
culture 1% +$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +47.4% +33.3% 67% 67% +31.6%
≤30d 47 +5.6% -4.5% 53% 53% -16.1%
≤90d 105 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 48% -20.0%
all 308 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 46% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 46% -10.7%
10% -24.2% 39% -19.2%
15% -31.6% 32% -27.0%
20% -38.3% 22% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$77 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$1,005
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses157 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions3
Markets (closed)308 / 313
History coverage224d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 56¢ $201 $213 +$11 (+6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $49 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $27 +$20 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $95 −$68 -72%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $63 +$32 +52%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$35 -34%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $106 +$58 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 24 $71 −$54 -76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 −$16 -16%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $90 +$35 +39%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$86 +85%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$47 +47%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$26 +129%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18 −$13 -70%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$81 +79%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $99 +$137 +138%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $101 +$193 +191%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$72 -71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 −$298 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $246 +$52 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $177 −$26 -14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 +$48 +48%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $98 −$97 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $180 +$120 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$12 -44%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $92 +$93 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $102 +$38 +37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $141 +$48 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $141 +$62 +44%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $507 −$364 -72%
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? May 31 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) May 31 $120 −$83 -69%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 +$224 +74%
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $200 +$78 +39%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $20 +$24 +119%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $80 +$26 +32%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $201 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $49 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $27 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $95 4h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $63 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $55 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $146 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 40¢ $67 29h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $106 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 38h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 15¢ $17 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $85 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 97¢ $126 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $90 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $2 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $61 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 57¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $84 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 55¢ $99 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 53¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.32 · official $349.35 (match) · 1190 history records