Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83f7…1907 weather 536 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$37 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate82%434W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$14
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 28% -8.2%
≤30d 70 -1.7% -11.1% 80% 10% -8.7%
≤90d 529 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 26% -9.5%
all 529 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 26% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 26% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 13% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 7% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses434 / 95
Open positions7
Markets (closed)529 / 536
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 529 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 27? No 98¢ 98¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 26? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 26? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 28? No 99¢ 95¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 28? No 92¢ 93¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? No 68¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 28? No 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 25? Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 24? Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23? Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 21? Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Jun 18 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $70 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 7? Jun 08 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 6? Jun 07 $70 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 6? Jun 07 $70 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 5? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 5? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 64¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? BUY No 68¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $50 47h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $50 47h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 26? SELL No 71¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 26? BUY No 75¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? BUY No 68¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24? BUY No 62¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 65¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 69¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $80 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 72¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $40 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $50 9d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $101 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.42 · official $223.41 (match) · 3500 history records