Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83f8…a32e sports 388 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,426 (+3%) realized +$11,900 · open +$526
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%353W / 32L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$1,033per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8,294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$888
7 days+$964
14 days+$964
30 days+$964
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$13,216
other 19% −$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.2% -13.4% 93% 7% -8.8%
≤30d 14 -4.2% -13.4% 93% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 18 -2.0% -11.3% 94% 6% -8.7%
all 385 -0.4% -9.8% 92% 8% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 8% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 2% -15.6%
15% -26.4% 2% -23.8%
20% -33.6% 1% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$802) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$186 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$8,294
Realized+$11,900
Unrealized+$526
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses353 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions3
Markets (closed)385 / 388
History coverage169d
Avg bet$1,033
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Switzerland 95¢ 100¢ $4,760 $4,997 +$237 (+5%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 91¢ 100¢ $2,796 $3,082 +$286 (+10%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Switzerland 99¢ 100¢ $212 $214 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $9,770 +$230 +2%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $2,390 +$78 +3%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 17 $66 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9,950 +$50 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,905 +$95 +2%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $6,222 +$95 +2%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $9,800 +$200 +2%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $9,159 +$139 +2%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $4,773 +$225 +5%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $7,506 +$232 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2,571 +$274 +11%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2,232 −$2,225 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $11,796 +$615 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39,994 +$954 +2%
Chattanooga Mocs vs. North Dakota State Bison (W) Apr 07 $305 +$16 +5%
Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs. BYU Cougars (W) Mar 26 $98 +$4 +4%
South Carolina Central Christian Gladiators vs. Western Carolina Catam Mar 26 $105 +$4 +4%
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Stanford Cardinal (W) Mar 26 $625 +$64 +10%
Le Moyne Dolphins vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (W) Mar 14 $2,079 +$180 +9%
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Howard Bison (W) Mar 12 $672 +$114 +17%
Delaware State Hornets vs. Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks (W) Mar 12 $876 +$65 +7%
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (W) Mar 11 $3,871 +$258 +7%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats (W) Mar 08 $30 +$1 +4%
Yale Bulldogs vs. Princeton Tigers (W) Mar 08 $1,516 +$79 +5%
Buffalo Bulls vs. Massachusetts Minutemen (W) Mar 08 $1,856 +$120 +6%
Murray State Racers vs. Valparaiso Beacons (W) Mar 08 $4,223 +$217 +5%
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs (W) Mar 06 $853 +$36 +4%
Long Beach State Beach vs. UC Davis Aggies (W) Mar 06 $13,786 −$651 -5%
Omaha Mavericks vs. North Dakota State Bison (W) Mar 06 $5 $0 +3%
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (W) Mar 06 $128 +$22 +18%
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (W) Mar 06 $2,055 +$187 +9%
Kansas City Roos vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits (W) Mar 06 $5,674 +$285 +5%
Belmont Bruins vs. Valparaiso Beacons (W) Mar 06 $5,873 +$262 +4%
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Belmont Bruins (W) Mar 05 $59 +$4 +7%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Kentucky Wildcats (W) Mar 05 $3,997 +$200 +5%
Colorado State Rams vs. San Jose State Spartans (W) Mar 04 $354 +$19 +6%
Bellarmine Knights vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (W) Mar 04 $4,602 +$348 +8%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Missouri Tigers (W) Mar 02 $1,270 +$65 +5%
Connecticut Huskies vs. St. John's Red Storm (W) Mar 02 $1,444 +$42 +3%
Boston College Eagles vs. Syracuse Orange (W) Mar 02 $1,470 +$92 +6%
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (W) Mar 02 $7,375 +$459 +6%
Pepperdine Waves vs. Seattle Redhawks (W) Mar 01 $29 +$2 +6%
Niagara Purple Eagles vs. Merrimack College Warriors (W) Mar 01 $60 +$2 +3%
Akron Zips vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks (W) Mar 01 $500 +$26 +5%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Valparaiso Beacons (W) Mar 01 $1,005 +$53 +5%
Longwood Lancers vs. Presbyterian Blue Hose (W) Mar 01 $999 +$60 +6%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (W) Mar 01 $1,506 +$94 +6%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. New Orleans Privateers (W) Mar 01 $1,695 +$90 +5%
North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs. North Dakota State Bison (W) Mar 01 $1,926 +$167 +9%
Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats (W) Mar 01 $3,085 +$194 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $65 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $225 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $450 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 91¢ $1,901 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $100 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $100 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $5 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $7 2h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 95¢ $2,239 2h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 95¢ $2,521 2h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 97¢ $131 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 97¢ $1,649 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $38 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $27 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $30 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,293.83 · official $8,293.83 (match) · 3159 history records