Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83fc…6c92 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$396 (-9%) realized −$601 · open +$205
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$1,983now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$27
sports 8% −$325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-78.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -76.6% -78.8% 10% 10% -31.9%
≤30d 10 -76.6% -78.8% 10% 10% -31.9%
≤90d 10 -76.6% -78.8% 10% 10% -31.9%
all 10 -76.6% -78.8% 10% 10% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.8% 10% -31.9%
10% -80.9% 10% -38.4%
15% -82.7% 10% -44.4%
20% -84.4% 10% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$884 vs −$160 · ×5.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,983
Realized−$601
Unrealized+$205
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,778 $1,983 +$205 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $81 −$79 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $679 −$644 -95%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $53 −$52 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 France? Jun 26 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $661 +$884 +134%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $245 −$95 -39%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $332 −$325 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $117 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $140 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $43 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 5h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 8h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 France? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 France? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $23 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $535 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $40 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $91 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $148 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 7¢ $140 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $45 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,983.06 · official $1,983.06 (match) · 49 history records