Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83fd…2aab sports 219 markets active 2d ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,032 (-16%) realized −$1,032 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%68W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$154
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,021
crypto 10% −$30
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -23.2% -30.5% 27% 27% -29.7%
≤30d 23 -10.2% -18.8% 30% 30% -17.6%
≤90d 155 -42.8% -48.3% 21% 21% -46.2%
all 219 -14.0% -22.2% 31% 29% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 29% -25.0%
10% -29.6% 27% -32.2%
15% -36.4% 26% -38.7%
20% -42.7% 21% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$24 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,032
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses68 / 151
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)219 / 219
History coverage176d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 219 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $19 +$33 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$27 +134%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 +$42 +85%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 +$29 +206%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$11 -52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $67 +$131 +197%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $33 +$49 +149%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $32 +$89 +276%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $20 +$26 +128%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $62 +$202 +325%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $18 +$44 +237%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Apr 26 $40 +$18 +46%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $79 +$33 +41%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $48 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 42¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $56 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $39 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 32¢ $35 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 9¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $5 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 31¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 33¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 32¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $197 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 878 history records