Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
83 0x83fe…9762 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-4%) realized −$22 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$59
other 19% −$25
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +45.2% +31.4% 42% 21% -5.0%
≤30d 19 +45.2% +31.4% 42% 21% -5.0%
≤90d 19 +45.2% +31.4% 42% 21% -5.0%
all 19 +45.2% +31.4% 42% 21% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.4% 21% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here +18.8% 11% -14.1%
15% +7.3% 11% -22.4%
20% -3.2% 11% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late +159% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 54¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-12%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 8¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $5 +$95 +1845%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $45 +$3 +6%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $95 +$9 +10%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $82 +$11 +13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $122 +$4 +3%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $241 +$9 +4%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $95 +$11 +12%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $14 −$13 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $95 −$94 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $99 +$65 +66%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 19m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20m
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 32m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $36 35m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 8¢ $2 40m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 8¢ $2 42m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 8¢ $1 44m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 95¢ $47 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 94¢ $94 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 92¢ $93 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $45 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 14¢ $6 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 5¢ $5 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $95 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $27 2h
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $82 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $95 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 91¢ $95 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 46¢ $11 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 8¢ $3 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 23¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.99 · official $44.71 (match) · 49 history records