Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83ff…b5b8
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 4 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$5
other 40% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 50% -19.3%
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 50% -19.3%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 50% -19.3%
all 10 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 50% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 50% -19.3%
10% -17.7% 40% -27.0%
15% -25.7% 40% -34.1%
20% -33.0% 30% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.00 · official $11.00 (match) · 24 history records