Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8402…334d crypto 738 markets active 4h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate80%594W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$29
14 days+$31
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +3.9% -6.0% 86% 8% -6.0%
≤30d 154 -0.6% -10.0% 79% 12% -10.0%
≤90d 738 -2.2% -11.5% 80% 11% -10.7%
all 738 -2.2% -11.5% 80% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 11% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 1% -19.3%
15% -27.7% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses594 / 144
Open positions0
Markets (closed)738 / 738
History coverage64d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 738 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $15 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $16 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1471 history records