Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
84 0x8402…f4a5 crypto 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$392 (-1%) realized −$393 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate34%96W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$184
7 days−$7
14 days+$300
30 days+$549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$729
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.2% +5.1% 83% 83% -10.1%
≤30d 22 +20.2% +8.8% 82% 82% +5.3%
≤90d 229 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 21% -11.0%
all 282 +0.2% -9.3% 34% 23% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 23% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 18% -19.4%
15% -25.9% 10% -27.2%
20% -33.2% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$73 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$393
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses96 / 186
Open positions1
Markets (closed)282 / 283
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$176
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? No 57¢ 64¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $152 +$78 +51%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $196 +$66 +34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $57 +$40 +69%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 14 $263 −$263 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $411 +$70 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 11 $27 +$25 +93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 11 $42 +$25 +60%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 11 $74 +$64 +86%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 11 $248 +$109 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $181 +$91 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $249 +$72 +29%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $229 +$61 +27%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $114 +$50 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 26? May 28 $87 +$51 +59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? May 28 $106 +$55 +52%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 28 $300 +$85 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 27? May 27 $177 +$67 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 24? May 26 $162 +$63 +39%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25? May 24 $247 −$247 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? May 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 18? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? May 18 $87 +$54 +62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15? May 17 $120 +$68 +56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17? May 17 $159 +$60 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16? May 16 $55 +$32 +59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? May 13 $30 +$11 +37%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 13? May 13 $268 +$76 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 14? May 13 $273 −$273 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 12? May 12 $95 +$41 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? May 10 $30 +$20 +67%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? May 10 $160 +$94 +59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? May 08 $190 −$190 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8? May 08 $84 +$53 +64%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 7? May 07 $314 +$93 +30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5? May 05 $345 +$74 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 4? May 04 $286 +$83 +29%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 2? May 01 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 29? May 01 $180 +$89 +49%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 1? Apr 30 $323 −$323 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 30? Apr 30 $57 +$20 +35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 14? Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 8? Apr 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13? Apr 28 $111 −$111 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 22? Apr 28 $216 −$216 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 10? Apr 28 $290 −$290 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 8? Apr 28 $299 −$299 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17? Apr 28 $310 −$310 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 57¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $231 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $1 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $152 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $205 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $48 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $10 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $195 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $57 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $263 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $8 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $92 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $389 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $411 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? SELL No 95¢ $272 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? BUY No 63¢ $12 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? BUY No 63¢ $169 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? BUY No 63¢ $38 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? BUY No 63¢ $4 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? BUY No 78¢ $8 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? BUY No 54¢ $21 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? BUY No 54¢ $5 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? BUY No 54¢ $48 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? SELL No 97¢ $200 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? SELL No 98¢ $5 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? BUY No 68¢ $2 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? BUY No 68¢ $246 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? BUY No 52¢ $27 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.41 · official $10.49 (match) · 3500 history records