Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8406…b962 weather 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$664 (-22%) realized −$664 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$13
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$103
weather 24% −$261
economics 7% −$197
other 5% −$89
sports 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 83% 33% -18.9%
≤30d 10 -1.9% -11.3% 80% 20% -16.6%
≤90d 10 -1.9% -11.3% 80% 20% -16.6%
all 34 -36.9% -42.9% 44% 24% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 24% -30.0%
10% -48.4% 12% -36.7%
15% -53.4% 12% -42.8%
20% -57.9% 9% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$75 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$664
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage193d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 26? Jun 26 $43 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 +$1 +5%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 26? Mar 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 25? Mar 25 $100 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 25? Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 24? Mar 24 $40 −$30 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 23? Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Mar 24 $268 −$268 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24? Mar 24 $121 −$70 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 24? Mar 24 $50 −$7 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 23? Mar 24 $107 +$24 +22%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $340 −$271 -80%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20? Mar 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 23? Mar 23 $9 −$9 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 08 $450 +$27 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $180 +$32 +18%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 02 $265 +$516 +195%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $165 +$102 +62%
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? Jan 31 $35 +$14 +40%
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? Dec 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 27 $98 −$98 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19? Dec 19 $36 −$23 -65%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18? Dec 18 $16 −$10 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $43 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $9 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $32 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 10? SELL No 94¢ $9 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? SELL No 1¢ $0 16d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? BUY No 2¢ $0 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 10? BUY No 90¢ $9 16d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? BUY No 2¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 26? BUY No 68¢ $80 91d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 93d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 93d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 25? BUY No 88¢ $100 93d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 25? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 93d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 24? BUY No 18¢ $30 93d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 24? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 94d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 24? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 94d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 24? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 94d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24? BUY Yes 50¢ $71 94d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 24? SELL Yes 36¢ $43 94d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 94d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 94d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 94d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 94d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records