Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8407…23de crypto 942 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,515 (-6%) realized −$1,515 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate69%647W / 295L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$90
14 days+$56
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +12.4% +1.7% 74% 62% -7.5%
≤30d 555 +6.7% -3.5% 66% 56% -11.2%
≤90d 942 +12.1% +1.5% 69% 59% -17.8%
all 942 +12.1% +1.5% 69% 59% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.5% 59% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 45% -25.7%
15% -17.1% 43% -32.8%
20% -25.2% 26% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$20 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,515
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses647 / 295
Open positions0
Markets (closed)942 / 942
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 942 Trades
no open positions (106 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $307 −$39 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $716 −$371 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $307 −$50 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$34 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$17 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$19 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $307 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$10 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$9 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $86 +$51 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $69 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $70 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $52 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $205 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $409 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records