Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8409…bdf6 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$44 (-10%) realized −$31 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$42
sports 26% +$2
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +6.6% -3.6% 26% 26% -14.7%
≤30d 19 +6.6% -3.6% 26% 26% -14.7%
≤90d 32 -14.0% -22.2% 25% 25% -18.0%
all 32 -14.0% -22.2% 25% 25% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 25% -18.0%
10% -29.6% 25% -25.8%
15% -36.4% 22% -33.0%
20% -42.7% 19% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage33d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-21%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-05-12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-13? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Pistons 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$10 +334%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -93%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $15 +$10 +69%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$3 -50%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $46 +$23 +50%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw? May 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $13 −$2 -17%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $13 42m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $19 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 17h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 21h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 21h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 28h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 28h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 80¢ $14 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.09 · official $95.09 (match) · 69 history records