Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x8409…41de
weather · 165 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses163 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage181d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 164 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 24? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 23? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 14? May 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12? May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11? May 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on May May 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 9? May 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 8? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 8? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 8? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 7? May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6? May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on May May 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 5? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 4? May 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 3? May 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 39°C on May 2? May 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $23 +$1 +3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $23 $0 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 6? Apr 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 5? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% +$3
world 5% −$23
other 4% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May BUY Yes 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 22d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 30d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $24 31d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $24 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 88 -1.0% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.7%
all 164 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.23 · official $7.23 (match) · 330 history records