Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8409…753d sports 381 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,026 (-3%) realized −$2,003 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate39%138W / 219L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$4,215
crypto 16% −$2,844
world 10% +$527
finance 6% +$107
sports 6% +$489
tech 1% −$187
economics 0% +$17
weather 0% +$10
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -47.7% -52.7% 27% 26% -16.5%
≤30d 305 -10.7% -19.2% 35% 27% -6.7%
≤90d 357 -12.8% -21.1% 39% 26% -17.0%
all 357 -12.8% -21.1% 39% 26% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 26% -17.0%
10% -28.7% 20% -25.0%
15% -35.5% 16% -32.2%
20% -41.9% 14% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$65 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,345
Realized−$2,003
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses138 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions16
Markets (closed)357 / 381
History coverage58d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 54¢ 79¢ $328 $478 +$149 (+45%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 63¢ 61¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? No 76¢ 72¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 70¢ 79¢ $71 $80 +$10 (+14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $74 $75 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Yes 92¢ 62¢ $110 $75 −$35 (-32%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 60¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $76 $54 −$21 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 85¢ 38¢ $100 $44 −$56 (-56%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 95¢ 85¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-11%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $36 $16 −$20 (-56%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-59%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-64%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? Jun 26 $102 −$29 -29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $101 −$3 -3%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O Jun 25 $101 +$50 +50%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$26 +129%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 +$24 +230%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $101 +$31 +30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 +$181 +177%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$8 +83%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 24 $101 +$38 +38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +11%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 +$30 +291%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $112 +$25 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 23 $65 +$34 +52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 23 $88 +$11 +13%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $212 +$141 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $101 +$36 +35%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 69¢ $75 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? SELL Yes 51¢ $73 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 10h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 16h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 17h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 19h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 19h
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 22h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 92¢ $111 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 5¢ $51 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $84 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $19 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $78 28h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 29h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 78¢ $98 30h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $234 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,345.03 · official $1,345.05 (match) · 1397 history records