Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
84 0x840b…35b0 other 40 markets active 17h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10 (+9%) realized +$8 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$11
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$23
other 43% −$6
crypto 7% −$6
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +17.1% +6.0% 30% 30% +7.9%
≤30d 32 +15.4% +4.4% 31% 31% +1.8%
≤90d 32 +15.4% +4.4% 31% 31% +1.8%
all 32 +15.4% +4.4% 31% 31% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 31% +1.8%
10% -5.6% 28% -7.9%
15% -14.7% 28% -16.8%
20% -23.1% 28% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)32 / 40
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 64¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+139%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$11 +555%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +149%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$15 +777%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +259%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8 −$4 -51%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$3 +69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +112%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$9 +431%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 1¢ $0 4d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 21¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 28¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.93 · official $19.18 (match) · 78 history records