Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x840b…561e other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-12%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$53
sports 10% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -29.5% -36.2% 55% 36% -21.3%
≤30d 11 -29.5% -36.2% 55% 36% -21.3%
≤90d 11 -29.5% -36.2% 55% 36% -21.3%
all 11 -29.5% -36.2% 55% 36% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 36% -21.3%
10% -42.3% 36% -28.9%
15% -47.9% 27% -35.7%
20% -53.0% 0% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$34 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $116 +$10 +9%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $16 +$5 +30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $89 +$32 +36%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$4 +10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $95 +$45 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $116 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $16 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $22 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $45 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 40h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 40h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 40h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $41 40h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $140 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $95 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records