Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x840c…7450 other 242 markets active 3d ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$613 (-12%) realized −$613 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%64W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$458
14 days−$895
30 days−$876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$616
sports 40% −$296
crypto 5% +$77
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -60.1% -63.9% 15% 13% -39.6%
≤30d 207 -17.3% -25.2% 24% 23% -27.0%
≤90d 242 -13.9% -22.1% 26% 26% -23.8%
all 242 -13.9% -22.1% 26% 26% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 26% -23.8%
10% -29.5% 25% -31.1%
15% -36.3% 22% -37.7%
20% -42.6% 21% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$13 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses64 / 178
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage37d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (142 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$3 -46%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $195 +$11 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $150 −$148 -99%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $82 −$8 -9%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $10 −$1 -13%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $14 −$11 -74%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 −$2 -13%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$2 -39%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $128 +$50 +39%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $19 +$6 +32%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $18 $0 -2%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $157 +$95 +60%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $19 −$3 -14%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +88%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $32 −$11 -33%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $8 +$32 +386%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $9 −$5 -52%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 +$26 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $99 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 33¢ $26 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $14 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $31 4d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $4 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $111 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $96 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $96 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $99 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 18¢ $5 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $29 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $18 4d
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $127 4d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 504 history records