Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x840c…e655
sports · 23 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage61d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 0 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Over 42¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +6%
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to Score May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $4 −$3 -98%
Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: Both Teams to Score May 26 $2 −$2 -99%
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: Both Teams to Score May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to Score May 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to Score May 25 $2 +$1 +83%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 24 $2 +$1 +44%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Score May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $1 +$1 +65%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 May 09 $4 −$3 -98%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 May 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 +$1 +66%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to Score May 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $1 $0 +17%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 24 $3 +$2 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$13
other 30% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $10 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 17h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 98¢ $10 21h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 87¢ $10 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 41h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $9 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $8 2d
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 17d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $4 18d
Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 18d
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 18d
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 19d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 20d
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 21d
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $2 21d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $1 30d
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 36d
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 36d
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 42d
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 42d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 44d
Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 44d
Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 44d
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $1 50d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.8% -4.3% 71% 29% -4.4%
≤30d 16 -11.4% -19.8% 56% 38% -9.7%
≤90d 23 -19.3% -27.0% 52% 39% -17.5%
all 23 -19.3% -27.0% 52% 39% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 39% -17.5%
10% -34.0% 26% -25.4%
15% -40.4% 26% -32.6%
20% -46.2% 22% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records