Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8413…5921 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-2%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days−$185
14 days−$185
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$153
other 24% +$201
world 8% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.8% -21.1% 42% 42% -24.6%
≤30d 15 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 47% -10.8%
≤90d 15 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 47% -10.8%
all 15 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 47% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 47% -10.8%
10% -24.7% 27% -19.3%
15% -32.0% 20% -27.1%
20% -38.6% 20% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$66 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage17d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$10 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $124 +$30 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 +$64 +105%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$17 -82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $188 −$84 -45%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$14 -64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$100 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $311 −$311 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $568 +$12 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $683 +$92 +14%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $237 +$45 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 73¢ $60 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 44¢ $76 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $124 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $3 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 31h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $97 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $103 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $107 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $8 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $202 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 33¢ $28 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $311 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ $311 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $268 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $268 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 70¢ $300 16d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 19¢ $124 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $75.00 · 39 history records