Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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84 0x8417…8a39 crypto 1046 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$577 (-5%) realized −$562 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%416W / 626L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$298
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$1,082
sports 36% +$1,627
other 2% +$50
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -10.6% -19.1% 34% 33% -9.2%
≤30d 223 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 35% -12.8%
≤90d 1042 -10.1% -18.6% 40% 37% -4.5%
all 1042 -10.1% -18.6% 40% 37% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 37% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 35% -13.6%
15% -33.5% 32% -22.0%
20% -40.1% 29% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$562
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses416 / 626
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1042 / 1046
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1042 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Down 15¢ 12¢ $48 $40 −$8 (-17%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 25? No 12¢ 8¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-31%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 31¢ 42¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$14 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$6 -95%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $50 +$116 +232%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$10 +211%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$20 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$6 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$9 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$9 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$20 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$9 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$17 +225%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$22 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$7 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$12 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$17 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$10 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$5 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $12 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $11 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 16m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 25? BUY No 8¢ $3 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $11 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 25? BUY No 13¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 15¢ $48 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 25? BUY No 13¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $7 3h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL Texas Super Kings 90¢ $167 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.95 · official $76.27 (match) · 3500 history records